External Environment Analysis

Around China’s Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the down market entered a short-term upward trend, with both supply and demand showing active movements. As brands and garment factories accelerated their finished product deliveries, orders from down processors in the middle stage of the supply chain increased, further boosting raw material purchasing intentions. However, continued shortages of raw material inventories have recently led to a rapid rise in prices.

Meanwhile, sluggish sales of meat ducks and related products have noticeably slowed farm shipments, reducing overall supply of duck down. With the traditional peak demand season approaching, the market is revising 4Q duck down production forecasts downward. This trend has been driving an upward movement in white duck down prices. Traditionally strong in October, down prices are likely to face further upward pressure as buyers stock up ahead of the November 11 Singles’ Day shopping event.

Analysis by Down Product Category

Duck Down Sharp Increase

In October 2025, duck down prices surged over 10% due to a temporary spike in demand and supply imbalance around the Chinese National Day holidays. Weak frozen duck meat and by-product prices, along with rising slaughtering costs and reduced processing volumes, significantly increased raw material costs. Inventory reductions and higher orders from the bedding and home textile sectors further fueled this short-term demand surge. However, the rise appears to be a temporary “holiday effect” rather than a structural trend.

Goose Down Slight Increase

In October 2025, goose down prices rose slightly as the peak season began. Although purchases from the home bedding and textile sectors were weaker than expected, upward pressure from rising duck down prices contributed to goose down gains. The current market softness is largely seasonal rather than structural. With major brands strengthening their premium down apparel lines, demand for high-quality goose down is expected to recover toward the end of the year. Accordingly, as inventories are depleted, mid- to high-grade goose down prices are likely to gradually rebound.

Expected Down Price Range

(80%, KS standard, US$/kg)

Future Outlook Analysis

“In October, the down raw material market entered a temporary uptrend due to a short-term demand spike during China’s Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays. Ahead of the November 11 Singles’ Day event, distributors are expected to stock inventory, sustaining short-term price pressures into early November. After the holidays, replenishment demand will taper off, while farm shipments may slow due to weak meat duck sales, temporarily tightening supply. Recovery in hatching volumes and new farming after November should gradually ease pressure. However, sudden cold weather may further boost demand, sustaining elevated prices. We recommend monitoring the market through October and considering phased purchases from mid-November, once supply stabilizes.”