External Environment Analysis

Recently in China, an early cold wave accelerated the peak season for down jacket sales, driving up demand ahead of schedule. Brands increased production, causing a short-term surge in down raw material demand. White duck down faced rapid shortages, pushing prices near historical highs in a “short squeeze” effect. As manufacturers felt the pressure, signs of gradual price adjustments emerged. Goose down also saw temporary strength due to rising duck down prices, but demand eased after large buyers completed purchases, returning prices to a stable trend. Following slight warming after Singles’ Day, enthusiasm for down products cooled, prompting short-term price corrections. Expectations remain that down jacket sales will rise again with the next cold wave. Major washing factories are adjusting purchase prices to secure raw materials, but tight supply and strong price support have kept actual transactions limited. Overall, the market shows short-term volatility under tight supply while gradually moving toward stabilization.

다만 최근 또다시 한파가 남하하면서 패딩 판매가 다시 늘어날 것이라는 기대감이 높아지고 있습니다. 현재 대형 워싱 공장들은 원료를 더 낮은 가격에 확보하기 위해 매입 단가를 조정하고 있지만, 시장 전반의 공급 부족과 원료 업체들의 강한 가격 지지로 인해 실제 거래량은 크게 늘지 않고 있습니다. 전체적으로 시장은 공급이 타이트한 상황에서 단기적인 변동성을 보이면서도 점차 안정 방향을 탐색하는 흐름입니다.

Analysis by Down Product Category

Duck Down🦆 ⬆️ Slight Increase

At the end of October, the declining duck down market sharply reversed, with white duck down prices showing strong upward momentum. Despite high raw material prices, initial inventory shortages forced mid- and downstream companies to place active orders. White duck supply remained low, keeping prices elevated. From mid-to-late November, if daily duckling supply exceeds 10 million, pressure may ease, slowing price increases or causing slight declines.

Goose Down🪿 ➡️ Stable

With white duck down prices high, manufacturers and brands quickly shifted their purchasing toward goose down, driving concentrated demand, especially from large financially strong companies, and temporarily raising prices. However, further increases have been limited, resulting in a slightly weak to stable trend. Going forward, goose down prices are expected to remain stable with gradual upward potential, as smaller companies adjust their purchasing in line with market trends.

Expected Down Price Range

(80%, KS standard, US$/kg)

Future Outlook Analysis

“To date, the Chinese down market has shown a stronger-than-usual boom, with high demand and fast consumption. Early cold weather further boosted down product sales across the fashion industry, especially in the outdoor sector, where shortages led to additional production. Down raw material prices stayed high, briefly eased, then rebounded as another cold wave increased demand for outdoor apparel, down jackets, and bedding. While demand remains supported, most major buyers have finished concentrated purchases, limiting the potential for sharp further spikes, and significant declines still appear unlikely. We therefore advise clients not to delay purchases, as waiting may increase costs; engaging with suppliers now, while prices are relatively stable, is the safer approach.”

한파로 인해 수요가 여전히 유지되고 있지만, 주요 업체들의 집중 매입이 대부분 마무리된 만큼 추가적인 급등 요인은 크지 않습니다. 다만 이미 가격이 상당히 높은 수준까지 오른 데다, 하락 후 다시 반등하는 흐름을 보이고 있어 가격이 조정되더라도 크게 떨어질 가능성은 낮아 보입니다. 따라서 고객 여러분께서는 구매를 지나치게 늦출 경우 향후 시장 변동으로 오히려 부담이 커질 수 있으므로, 현재처럼 가격이 비교적 안정된 흐름일 때 다운 업체와 상담하며 조건을 조율해 너무 늦지 않게 대응하시길 권장드립니다.”