External Environment Analysis

In September 2025, the down market is stabilizing as supply recovers and demand rebounds. Since mid-August, orders in exports, outdoor goods, apparel, and home textiles have increased, though overall sentiment remains cautious due to higher raw material costs and inventory pressures.

High down and feather prices are driving a “stockpiling” mentality among breeders and distributors, adding to market volatility. While short-term profits have increased, risks of hoarding and imbalances remain, as shown last year when some firms benefited from early procurement while others lost from soaring costs.

The global fashion industry remains uncertain. U.S. tariffs and the removal of duty-free allowances have disrupted the sector, while Chinese fast fashion firms raise prices, Indian manufacturers shift production to Africa, and Canada and Mexico tighten trade barriers. These changes drive up costs and add supply chain complexity, pressuring profitability.

Amid global fashion industry uncertainty from regulations and trade barriers, the U.S. announced on August 28, 2025, an extension of certain Section 301 tariff exemptions. Originally set to expire on August 31, the measure now runs until November 29, allowing down and feathers to trade tariff-free for the time being.

Analysis by Down Product Category

Duck Down Slight Increase

In September 2025, duck down prices rose slightly amid supply imbalances and seasonal factors. White duckling prices fell ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival due to lower demand and rising feed costs, reducing farm incomes. Daily hatching averaged 8.8 million, still 20% below last year. Farms plan active releases in late September–early October, and cooler weather may aid breeding. Gradual production recovery and seasonal demand are expected to support a steady rebound in the down market.

Goose Down Slight Increase

In September 2025, goose down prices were largely unchanged, though a continued white goose down shortage caused a slight rise. Some demand shifted to gray goose down, temporarily boosting gray goose and gray duck down prices. Trading is gradually recovering around substitutes. In the short term, the white goose down shortage is likely to keep prices strong, while production recovery and seasonal demand should support steady market stabilization.

Expected Down Price Range

(80%, KS standard, US$/kg)

Future Outlook Analysis

“The down market usually peaks around the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day, and Singles’ Day, with September as the traditional peak for finished products. This year, orders have dropped despite normal shipments, making mid-to-late September a critical period.

Looking ahead, October duckling hatching is expected to recover to around 12 million, and seasonal demand should help stabilize the supply chain. Mid-to-late September is the peak season for finished down orders, while early October is expected to see gradual stabilization of supply and prices. Accordingly, we recommend that our customers consider “preemptive purchases” in mid-to-late September and “stable purchases” in early October, based on their needs and strategies.”