External Environment Analysis

In August 2025, the down market is in a typical tug-of-war between costs and demand. Overall market activity remains sluggish, and demand recovery is weak. Factors such as increased rigidity in cost structures and a shortage of high-quality down are combined, making price reductions virtually impossible. At the same time, persistently high raw material prices and elevated inventory levels are putting significant pressure on the profit margins of companies selling down products, which in turn reinforces a conservative approach to production and purchasing decisions.

On the supply side, the production of ducklings sharply declined from around 13 million per day to 8.5 million per day, causing significant disruption in down supply. However, signs of recovery began to appear from mid-August. As the laying rate of ducks improves and egg supply increases, the daily supply of ducklings remained at approximately 7.8–8.5 million from late July to mid-August. From late August onward, the supply is gradually expected to rise, reaching an average of about 11 million per day by the end of September. Accordingly, duckling prices are also expected to gradually stabilize.

In terms of the global trade environment, the mutual tariff exemptions between China and the U.S. have been extended by 90 days; however, the down industry continues to be affected by the U.S. Section 301 tariffs. In particular, the Section 301 exemption is scheduled to expire at the end of August, and if it is not extended, down raw materials exported to the U.S. will once again face high tariff burdens. Additionally, as the U.S. raised tariffs on Indian apparel and textiles from 25% to 50%, the Indian industry has been severely impacted, prompting major buyers to halt shipments and diversify production locations. Vietnam and Bangladesh, benefiting from lower tariffs (20%), are gaining opportunities to expand their market share in the U.S. This restructuring of the global fashion supply chain could create volatility in apparel prices, including down products.

Analysis by Down Product Category

Duck Down Maintain an upward trend

In August 2025, duck down prices remain strong due to supply shortages. Duck production is expected to decline by more than 10% compared to the previous month, mainly driven by a decrease in duckling production and reduced contract supplies from cold storage operators. The hot and humid summer climate has further disrupted breeding activities, intensifying production shortfalls, and the reduced inventory of breeding ducks suggests that supply constraints may persist for an extended period. On the demand side, a short-term increase is expected due to preparations for school openings, centralized procurement for group meals, and early stockpiling by food manufacturers ahead of Chuseok. However, overall demand remains subdued due to seasonal factors. As a result, supply shortages continue to be the main market driver, and duck down prices are expected to remain strong in the near term.

Goose Down Maintain an upward trend

In August 2025, goose down prices have maintained the upward trend seen in July and are showing a stable pattern. This is attributed to the ongoing supply shortage, which is preventing price declines. Despite demand not increasing significantly, the imbalance in raw material supply remains a key factor supporting prices. Seasonally, the hot and humid summer climate hampers goose breeding, leading to lower slaughter volumes and further exacerbating the supply shortage. On the demand side, goose down demand remains subdued due to seasonal summer factors; however, with the onset of winter apparel and bedding demand after September, the supply imbalance may intensify, potentially resuming the price uptrend.

Expected Down Price Range

(80%, KS standard, US$/kg)

Future Outlook Analysis

Currently, fluctuations in down prices are primarily driven by supply reductions and short-term market shortages. Since July, duck down supply has continuously weakened, reaching the year’s lowest level in August, which has intensified raw material shortages. However, considering the trend in duckling production, a substantial recovery in raw material supply is expected no earlier than mid-September. From a pricing perspective, with supply shortages persisting, combined with increased logistics costs due to the U.S. Section 301 tariffs and overall raw material cost pressures, upward pressure on down prices is likely to continue in the near term. Additionally, the activity in China’s domestic market, which intensified from July, has also had a notable impact on down prices. At the Pinghu Down Jacket Expo, orders and visitor numbers increased significantly, confirming market vitality, and some down processing companies are proactively securing raw materials in preparation for the peak season starting in August. This early demand inflow also supports down prices. We recommend that our customers carefully plan the timing and volume of purchases, as duckling supply is expected to recover after September and the market balance gradually stabilizes.