External Environment Analysis

In June 2025, prices for both duck down and goose down surged sharply due to a combination of external factors, including rapid changes in the global trade environment, currency fluctuations, and abnormal weather conditions. Entering July, the market began to stabilize, which is interpreted as market fatigue following about a month of rising prices and a fragile demand base. However, despite a significant drop in demand, a reduction in supply has led to shortages in raw down materials, causing prices to rise again recently.

Furthermore, President Trump's tariff hikes have added further uncertainty to the down market. The imposition of reciprocal tariffs on major garment-producing countries such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Vietnam has weakened the profitability of global apparel vendors, leading to reduced orders and lower factory utilization rates. This situation increases the likelihood of demand contraction across all accessories, including down. In particular, the pressure from U.S. buyers for price reductions and potential restructuring of production bases may unpredictably affect the future supply and demand dynamics of down materials.

On the other hand, there is a positive outlook for down demand. According to the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a high possibility that the La Niña phenomenon will occur briefly or weakly in the second half of 2025, leading to an early cold snap. When La Niña occurs, stronger northwesterly winds and an expanded Siberian high-pressure system are expected to bring colder air that lingers longer over the Korean Peninsula, northern China, Japan, and surrounding regions during winter. This is anticipated to boost early winter demand for down products and have a positive impact on both domestic and international exports.

Analysis by Down Product Category

Duck Down Slight Increase

In July 2025, duck down prices showed a slight increase despite reduced demand, driven by a contraction in supply. Due to prolonged losses throughout the industry in China—from slaughterhouses to downstream distribution channels—approximately 9 million breeding ducks have been reduced, and the daily production of ducklings has decreased by over 2 million, significantly lowering raw material availability. Securing duck down has become increasingly difficult, with some processing companies proactively sourcing raw materials ahead of the peak season starting in August. Additionally, the rising price of goose down has led to relatively increased demand for duck down, further supporting price strength. As long as supply remains constrained, duck down prices are expected to maintain a firm upward trend in the near term.

Goose Down Slight Increase

In July 2025, goose down prices showed a temporary stabilization after about a month of rising trends but have recently resumed their upward movement. This is attributed to a shortage in raw material supply caused by a decrease in goose slaughter volumes. According to industry reports, the consumption share of goose meat in China’s meat market has steadily increased from around 1% ten years ago to 4% today, with an annual demand of approximately 900 to 1 billion geese. However, the current slaughter volume is only about 600 million, creating a significant gap between supply and demand. This imbalance in raw material supply has intensified, exerting continuous upward pressure on goose down prices despite the decline in demand.

📊Expected Down Price Range

(80%, KS standard, US$/kg)

Future Outlook Analysis

“Due to a slowdown in the demand for goose and duck meat, the down raw material market is experiencing a significant supply contraction. In addition, changing dietary habits in China, rising labor and feed costs, and stricter environmental regulations are gradually reducing the number of farms, further intensifying the supply-demand imbalance of raw down. Furthermore, compounded by external factors such as rising global logistics costs and overall raw material expenses due to the Trump administration’s tariff policies, upward pressure on down prices is expected to persist in the near future.

In addition, growing activity in China’s domestic market, beginning in July, is expected to have a notable impact on down price trends. Some down processing companies are reportedly securing raw materials in advance in preparation for the peak season starting in August. This early influx of demand is further contributing to upward pressure on prices. We recommend that our customers closely monitor market stability in supply and demand, and carefully plan their purchasing timing accordingly.”